[obrolan-bandar] Two big scenario

Two big scenario  

If the market RECOVERS before the FOMC meeting, chances that Fed will not cut rate (because he sees market has recovered), then market will be disappointed and then crashed after that. However If Fed still cuts rate, then market will continue to rally.*  

If the market CRASHES before the FOMC meeting, chances that Bernanke will cut rate (because he sees market needs emergency help), then the market will recover.  

*Right now fed keeps its monetary policy to control inflation, which is more important than subprime fallout. Inflation weakens US dollars (more money to buy same product, specifically from CHINA) and US purchasing power, which has broader impact on US economy in the long run, and systemically decrease investors trust because US has TRILLIONS of debt in t-bills, notes and bonds that were bought by foreigners, mostly from Middle East and China, and they’re all in USD.  

Pokoke ribet lah. Mending konsen ke hari Senin aja. :)    

Regards,

DE      

From: obrolan-bandar(*)yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-bandar(*)yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of David Hartanto Sent: Friday, August 31, 2007 5:38 PM
To: obrolan-bandar(*)yahoogroups.com
Subject: Balasan: RE: [obrolan-bandar] 2 MR DE  

Pak DE, do you think should Bernanke announce interest rate cut will send a good signal to our market? Of course when interest rate down the stock market will usually rise, but on the other hand isn't that means the impact of the subprime case is really hurting the US economy? If that the case the performance of the company will be bad as well. Cause I don't think he will want to cut the interest rate if the impact not too bad. However I agree that China will cause greater impact toward Indonesian economy than US. Thank's & Regard,
David Hartanto

Dean Earwicker <dean.earwicker(*)gmail.com> wrote:

Actually I have no idea. Yeah perhaps market will have correction someday next week, but it’s normal and acceptable, since we have a quite long rally recently.  

If you mean we’re gonna have another crash, well I don’t think so, except Bernanke speech today doesn’t meet market expectation, badly. Even so, Asia & Europe market has started to ignore a little bit on what happen in US.  

From my view, Lippo group has minimal impact on overall market. Nobody cares about them anyway except themself.  

When I come to think of it, the main idea of “recession” is pointing not to US, but China. That’s what they want. If china falls, we’re all dead.  

But China - I believe - is very strong.    

Regards,

DE  

From: obrolan-bandar(*)yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-bandar(*)yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Lee Cwan Yeuw Sent: Friday, August 31, 2007 4:40 PM
To: obrolan-bandar(*)yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] 2 MR DE  

history ...when lippo group jump/

the market will down ????

How about you Mr DE ?

• Original Message ---- From: Oskar Syahbana <oskar.syahbana(*)gmail.com> To: obrolan-bandar(*)yahoogroups.com Sent: Friday, 31 August 2007 12:10:37 Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] DOW vs IHSG

Hehehe good joke mr dean. Emang kemarin itu dow memang enak untuk di daytrade :-). Now will the bernanke speech make the bear loose more than just a ball?? Heheh, we'll see

On 8/31/07, Dean Earwicker <dean.earwicker@ gmail.com <mailto:dean.earwicker%40gmail.com> > wrote:
> bullbear.gif
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> BEAR: Hahahaha. give me your stocks....
> BULL: Jantjook .!!
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> "CROT!!"
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> BEAR: .ugh.. my balls.
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> Regards,
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> DE
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--
Oskar Syahbana
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