http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqNT0qlW_zQE&refer=home
Jim Rogers Shifts Assets Out of Dollar to Buy Yuan (Update1)
By Marcel van de Hoef and Danielle Rossingh
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said he is shifting all his assets out of the dollar and buying Chinese yuan because the Federal Reserve has eroded the value of the U.S. currency.
``I'm in the process of -- I hope in the next few months -- getting all of my assets out of U.S. dollars,'' said Rogers, 65, who correctly predicted the commodities rally in 1999. ``I'm that pessimistic about what's happening in the U.S.''
Rogers, delivering a presentation late yesterday at an investors' meeting organized by ABN Amro Markets in Amsterdam, said he expects the Chinese currency to quadruple in the next decade and that he is holding on to commodities such as platinum, gold, silver and palladium.
The dollar has dropped against all the 16 most actively traded currencies except the Mexican peso this year as slowing growth and the first interest-rate reduction since 2003 last month dimmed the allure of dollar-denominated assets.
Since the Fed lowered U.S. interest rates on Sept. 18, the first cut in four years, the dollar has fallen 2.8 percent against the euro and touched a record low yesterday. Gold rose to a 27-year high and platinum jumped to a record.
``It's the official policy of the central bank and the U.S. to debase the currency,'' said Rogers, a former partner of George Soros.
Reserve Currency
``The U.S. dollar is and has been the world's reserve currency, the world's medium of exchange,'' he said. ``That's in the process of changing. The pound sterling, which used to be the world's reserve currency, lost 80 percent of its value, top to bottom, as it went through the whole period of losing its status as the world's reserve currency.''
The Chinese currency, known as the renminbi, or yuan, is ``the best currency to buy right now,'' Rogers said. ``I don't see how one can really lose on the renminbi in the next decade or so. It's gotta go. It's gotta triple. It's gotta quadruple.''
The yuan strengthened past 7.5 to the dollar today for the first since the central bank ended a fixed exchange rate in July 2005. The currency has gained 10.5 percent since the dollar link was abandoned.
China, growing faster than any other major economy, is ``going to be the most important country in the 21st century,'' he said. China's gross domestic product expanded 11.9 percent in the second quarter, and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate the economy grew by 11.5 percent in the three months to Sept. 30.
Rogers also is buying Swiss francs and Japanese yen, which he said have been ``pounded down'' because of the so-called carry trades.
Unwinding Carry Trades
In the carry trade, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates, such as Japan, and invest the proceeds where rates are higher. Japan's benchmark overnight lending rate is 0.5 percent, compared with 6.5 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.
The carry trades in yen and francs will ``unwind someday,'' which will send the currencies ``straight up,'' Rogers said. ``I'm buying the yen.''
The bull markets in bonds and stocks are ``over,'' he said. ``Bonds will be a terrible place to be for many years and will in fact be going down for many years.''
Rogers said he remains bullish on commodities because ``that's where the big fortunes are going to be made in the world in the next five, or 10 or 15 years. The current bull market is going to last until sometime between 2014 and 2022.''
Commodity Prices
Commodity prices have surged as demand for raw materials, especially from China, rose faster than producers were able to increase output. Agricultural prices have led recent gains, including a record high for wheat last month and a three-year high in soybeans.
``The number of hectares devoted to wheat farming has been declining for 30 years, the inventory levels of food are at the lowest level since 1972,'' Rogers said. ``Suppose we start having droughts again. God knows how high the price of agriculture is going to go, so that's where I'm putting more of my money now than in other things.''
He added, ``I think I'm going to make more money in agriculture than I make in precious metals.''
Platinum, gold, silver and palladium will ``be much, much higher during the course of the bull market,'' he said.
On 10/24/07, TerryAstradika <astradika(*)yahoo.com> wrote:
> just sharing ya..!
>
> kalo beli inco sih memang udah mahal harganya, 1 lot = 500*80000 = 40juta,
> kenapa gak beli TBLA aja yang masih murah tapi prospek cerah! harga masih di
> bawah 600 perak (bisa beli seabrek-abrek lot) dengan profit 1 tahun kedepan
> Insya Allah 100% lebih, ya toh?!
>
> kalu mo invest, ya emiten yang diprediksi akan tumbuh terus 3-5 tahun ke
> depan, biasanya kalau tumbuhnya baru-baru banget, growth-nya awal2 tahun
> akan cepat, contoh antara google dengan yahoo / microsoft, meski ketiganya
> masih tumbuh, tapi yang lebih cepat growth-nya kan google (lihat data 2-3
> hari terakhir).
>
> yang lagi tumbuh2nya sekarang ada contohnya ANTM (mining) dan TBLA (agri),
> silahkan pilih yang mana, masih murah kok dua2nya.
>
> kalau kegatelan 50-50 dah, 50% utk invest, 50% lagi utk trading (manusiawi
> lah kalau tetep keblinger pengen trading2an juga nurutin sih Mbah Cs.,
> seperti saya..hehe..).
>
> trading dapet profit, masukin deh ke invest, lumayan kalu lagi turun bisa
> avr down, ilmu avr down sih gimana feeling aja, namanya juga FA (feeling
> analisis disamping yang FA benernya..)
>
> kenapa saya ambil dua contoh di atas? feeling saya (Feeling Analisis =
> FA), dengan bbrp resource baru ditemukan (maupun akuisisi di prsh lain),
> ANTM ke depannya masih growth sangat tinggi, prinsipnya tambang gitu kan?
> nemu sumur baru, pasti deh harganya naik,
> TBLA baru aja nanem, baru aja punya kebun baru, ada yang masih belum
> ditanemin pula, assetnya masih ijo-ijo, ibarat bayi masih pada tumbuh, asal
> dikasih nutrisi yang baik (management ok, gcg ok), pasti deh...eh Insya
> Allah ke depannya juga kinclong..
>
> kenafa sekarang masih seitu-itu aja? ini mah ada yang sirik pengen dapet
> harga bawah tentunya..tungguin aja, kuncinya sabar, ikhlas dan tawakal mas,
> sekaligus berdoa juga..hehehe..toh kata pak SB yang nentuin jg YMK..
>
> kalau ANTM sabar dikit lah bentar lagi juga pada kaget semua!
> kalau TBLA memang harus super sabar..karena yang namanya berkebun,
> panennya juga lama...hahaha...
>
> mumpung masih muda, nanemlah yang banyak, metiknya ntar pas pengsiun, tuh
> kayak Pak SB atau Pak Ratman, mereka mah bukan nanem, karena nanemnya udah
> dari dulu2, udh tinggal panenan, sekarang mah mereka paling MAIN
> SAHAM..iseng2 aja, paling profitnya buat cucu2nya..hehehe..itupun kalu
> diminta..hehehe..(sori kalu kurang berkenan).
>
> nb. MEDC juga ok tuh, toh juga nemu sumur baru di timteng, pantas dilirik,
> asal harga minyak jangan naik terus, ntar ga laku lagi jualan
> minyak..hehehe.. muuuuiiinyyaaakkk...muuuuiiinyyaaakkk...
>
> Odink <junkcrix(*)gmail.com> wrote:
> investing hanya untuk orang kaya, apalagi kl duitnya gak abis diguntingin
> ke' pak SB.. kl ke' saya ya dagang aja. beli inco 1 lot ude abis modal,
> apanya yg mo diaverage down. jadi jangan heran kl yg kaya makin kaya, yg
> miskin ya tetep aja ngasong di lampu merah panas2an diuber2 tramtib
>
> On Wed, 24 Oct 2007 10:07:21 +0700, Gandhi Hadiwitanto
> wrote:
>
> > Teori average down untuk saham-saham fundamental bagus itu masuk akal.
> > Tapi
> > butuh dana cukup besar agar dana kita tidak habis di satu saham.
> > Bagaimana
> > mengakalinya, Pak Budiana? Average downnya tiap turun berapa %? Kalau
> > secara
> > TA tunggu sampai bottom reversal. Kalau nggak pake TA?
>
>
>
> Ciao! Salam cuan selalu..
> Terry Astradika
>
>
>
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Received on Wed Oct 24 2007 - 02:54:00 EDT
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